Will Trump withdraw the US from the USMCA before the end of his second term?
Basic
4
Ṁ502029
38%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Donald Trump vowed during his presidential campaign that he would invoke the renegotiation clause of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA, formerly NAFTA). The agreement is up for renegotiation in 2026.
The USMCA was originally negotiated over 3 years (begun in 2017, finalized in 2019). Will Donald Trump abandon the agreement before his second term concludes on 20 Jan 2029?
This question resolves YES if Trump fully withdraws the US from the agreement. The renaming of the agreement, or the creation of a very similar successor agreement that takes effect immediately after USMCA, would not count.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will Trump finish his second term?
79% chance
Will Donald Trump remain de facto leader of the United States beyond the end of his second term?
6% chance
Will the United States pull out of the USMCA by the end of 2025?
36% chance
Will Donald Trump be impeached during his second term?
30% chance
Will Donald Trump resign as US President during his second term?
18% chance
Will Donald Trump serve a full term?
78% chance
If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?
Will Trump impose any tariffs at or above 25% on imports from Mexico before the end of 2025?
39% chance
If Trump is elected in 2024, he finish his second term?
77% chance
Will Trump visit Mexico during his term?
70% chance