After the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack in Moscow multiple Russian politicians have advocated for the return of death penalty.

The market will resolve positively if (and when) Russia officially lifts the moratorium on the death penalty, introduced in 1996. It could happen via a bill passed in parliament, a decision of the Constitutional Court, or via an executive order from the president. The market resolves as soon as the respective document is signed and/or published, possibly before it comes into force.

In case of an (unlikely) disagreement between the branches of the government, what counts if the executive branch is going to follow it.

I do not bet on my own questions.