When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time?
When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time?
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Ṁ24k
2026
1%
Before 2025-05-01
19%
Before 2025-06-01
43%
Before 2025-07-01
62%
Before 2025-08-01
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Before 2025-09-01
81%
Before 2025-10-01
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Before 2024-08-01
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Before 2024-09-01
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Before 2024-10-01
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Before 2024-11-01
Resolved
NO
Before 2024-12-01
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NO
Before 2025-01-01
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Before 2025-02-01
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NO
Before 2025-03-01
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Before 2025-04-01

In June 2024 SpaceX demonstrated successful descent for both first and second stages of the Starship rocket. The potential next stage would be to try to land one or both stages.

This market will resolve positively as soon as SpaceX manages to land the second stage of Starship rocket after an orbital or suborbital flight. The spacecraft has to be landed on land and in one piece. It should presumably be captured by the launch tower, but other ways of landing on land or on a barge would also qualify. The rocket can sustain some damage, but the payload has to stay intact. The rocket also should stay in one piece for at least an hour after the landing.

I do not bet on my own questions.

Related questions:

When will SpaceX successfully land Superheavy (Starship 1st stage) for the first time?

When will SpaceX first reuse Superheavy (Starship 1st stage)?

When will SpaceX first reuse Starship 2nd stage?

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Sorry for the duplicate but thought people might like different milestones in one place for comparison.

https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/starship-milestone-dates-megamarket

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bought Ṁ50 Before 2025-03-01 NO5mo
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I don't think this is a priority this year

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