Will there be a large volcanic explosion before 2027?
Plus
26
Ṁ13882026
55%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves YES if, before 1st Jan 2027, there is a volcanic explosion of 5 or larger on the Volcanic Explosivity Index https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_explosivity_index anywhere on Earth.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@mariopasquato Wikipedia has an incomplete list, over the last century there’s been one-ish per decade. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_large_Holocene_volcanic_eruptions
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be a volcanic eruption of Volcanic Explosivity Index 7 or greater before 2075?
22% chance
Will there be a volcanic eruption of Volcanic Explosivity Index 5 or greater before 2035?
47% chance
Will there be a volcanic eruption of Volcanic Explosivity Index 6 or greater before 2050?
34% chance
Will there be a volcano eruption with VEI >= 4 by the end of 2026?
22% chance
Will there be more than 30 New Volcano Eruptions in 2024?
82% chance
Will the Blue Lagoon be destroyed in a volcanic eruption before the end of 2024?
12% chance
Will a nuclear bomb be detonated somewhere in the world before 2033?
48% chance
Will there be more than 70 Active Volcanoes at the end of 2024?
14% chance
Will the sun explode before 2025?
1% chance
Will humans trigger a volcanic eruption by 2100?
40% chance