Neural Nets will write award-winning short stories and publishable 50k-word books by the end of 2025
Neural Nets will write award-winning short stories and publishable 50k-word books by the end of 2025
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32
Ṁ2884Dec 31
15%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Set criteria:
Must win some awards
Draft criteria:
Either credibly fully written by AI, not human edited
Or concensus that it would have won a 2023 writing competition but AI itself has led to higher standards
Inspired by tweet thread:
Link: https://twitter.com/RichardMCNgo/status/1640568776495353860?s=20
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For the record, my object-level prediction on this is ~32%, though it varies ~8-72% depending on the exact criteria used. E.g., Will a short story that is claimed to have been written by an AI win a reputable award? Sure, but a human will probably have been very involved in the editing of the AI output, the way we now in 2023 see lots of claims of AI-generated videos even though the AI's role is just writing the script or producing short video clips (usually just a quick pan/zoom with simple motion of the subject).
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
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