Will an LLM break 1400 ELO on LMSys before February? | Manifold

Will an LLM break 1400 ELO on LMSys before February?

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38

Ṁ33k

Feb 2

35%

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Google currently leads with Gemini -- which has two models at around 1370

But OpenAI just announced O3 -- which is getting great marks on things like hard science questions.
https://deepnewz.com/ai-modeling/openai-unveils-o3-o3-mini-models-exceeding-human-performance-on-arc-agi-4f05e4f7

The resolution is simple. Will and LMSys update contain a model with 1400 ELO? Cutoff is last day in January (East Coast time).

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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You can bet on which one crosses 1400 first here

https://manifold.markets/ChinmayTheMathGuy/what-will-be-true-of-the-first-mode

@ChinmayTheMathGuy cool -- gave you some liquidity for that market -- needs more

Worth noting: this market is essentially https://manifold.markets/bobbill/will-any-llm-outrank-gpt4-by-150-el but with a 1 month later close date

Will any LLM outrank GPT-4 by 150 Elo in LMSYS chatbot arena before 2025?

2% chance. https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard If GPT-4.5 and reaches 150 Elo above GPT-4 market resolves yes. If at any point any llm / chatbot reaches this threshold, market resolves yes. I will not bet in this market.

I would recommend rewording the title to before february

bought Ṁ1,000 NO

also @Moscow25 wanna bet more at 55%? Got a limit up for an hour or so

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Related questions

Which organization will have the top LLM on LMSys on March 1st?

EOY 2025: Will open LLMs match closed-source LLMs on coding to within 50 ELO points?

Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?

What organization will top the LLM leaderboards on LMArena at end of 2025? 🤖📊

Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?

400-point pwn solved by an LLM by 2025

Llama 3 405B ELO on Lmsys Arena Leaderboard 2 weeks after first appearance?

Will any LLM outrank GPT-4 by 150 Elo in LMSYS chatbot arena before 2025?

Will an LLM be able to solve a Rubik's Cube by 2025?

Will LLM progress stall in 2024?

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