What will be the final casualty ratio between Gaza and Israel in the 2023 Hamas-Israel conflict?
What will be the final casualty ratio between Gaza and Israel in the 2023 Hamas-Israel conflict?
Basic
8
Ṁ267Jan 1
3%
<1
3%
1-2
4%
2-3
10%
3-5
17%
5-7
17%
7-10
12%
10-15
7%
15-25
3%
25-40
24%
>40
Both civilian and military deaths will be included, including indirect via e.g. food blockades/death marches. Will move the close date back as appropriate.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
When will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)
What will be the ratio of Gazan to Israeli civilian deaths in the 2023 Hamas-Israel conflict?
How many Hamas combatants will be killed in the 2023 Israel-Hamas war
Will Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war?
33% chance
Will the Gaza death toll be over 150,000 at the end of the Israel-Hamas war
8% chance
Will Israel politically control Gaza after the 2023 Israel-Hamas war ends?
62% chance
[Even more numbers/bins] Death Toll in 2023 Israel Hamas war - Palestinian side
Will Hamas control >50% of Gaza at the end of 2024?
11% chance