State of Iran in 2030
8
Ṁ13982029
18%
Current regime in power, with nukes
28%
Current regime in power, no nukes
18%
Different regime in power, with nukes
36%
Different regime in power, no nukes
This question is basically a cross-product of https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-obtains-nuclear-weapon-by-2030/ and https://manifold.markets/BaryLevy/will-the-government-of-the-islamic-9R2hcIEElO
Update 2025-06-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they will make no personal judgement calls on this market's resolution. It will be resolved strictly in line with the linked markets.
As a result, the creator has indicated they will be betting on this market themselves.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will Iran experience regime change in 2025?
13% chance
Will Iran’s regime fall in 2025?
16% chance
Will Iran be a democracy in 2030?
22% chance
Outcome in Iran by end of 2025? [Read description]
Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?
53% chance
Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?
42% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by 2030?
33% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2030?
26% chance
Will Iran’s current government be overthrown, removed, or collapse before January 2026?
16% chance
Will Iran be Bankrupt by 2025
15% chance