Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2030?
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2030?
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Surprisingly high! There is probably a reason for the probability being so high, but I've been hearing for the last 25 years that an Iranian nuclear weapon is around the corner, and as of today in 2024 it still hasn't happened.
@WilliamDewey Completely reasonable as a new user! You might be interested in some of the news discussed in the comments on a related Metaculus question, if you weren't aware of it: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8129/iran-possesses-fissile-material-for-warhead/
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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