Who would win the US Presidential Election, if they were the Democratic Party nominee in 2024 or 2028?
Who would win the US Presidential Election, if they were the Democratic Party nominee in 2024 or 2028?
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32
Ṁ5286Nov 11
58%
[Any Democrat Except Biden or Harris]
51%
Pete Buttigieg
50%
Gretchen Whitmer
50%
Gavin Newsom
31%
Kamala Harris
6%
Joe Biden
An option resolves Yes if that person becomes the 2024 or 2028 Democratic Party nominee and wins the presidential election.
An option resolves No if that person becomes the 2024 or 2028 Democratic Party nominee and loses the presidential election.
An option resolves N/A if that person is not the 2024 or 2028 Democratic Party nominee.
For a version of this question about just the 2024 election, see here:
Who would win the US Presidential Election, if they were the Democratic Party nominee in 2024?
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It would be good to add Josh Shapiro and Tim Walz to this market because by being Harris' VP pick their chance of being the 2028 nominee would be greatly increased.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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