At which year the mainstream media will report that most of the internet content is AI-generated?
At which year the mainstream media will report that most of the internet content is AI-generated?
Basic
9
Ṁ2352031
47%
2024 or 2025
29%
2026 or 2027
12%
2028 or 2029
10%
2030 or 2031
3%
2032, later, or never
If at least two mainstream media outlets run stories that now most of the (open) internet is AI-generate, this market resolves to YES to the year of these stories.
This market resolves to 2032, later, or never on Dec 31st 2031.
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What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
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Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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