Will Trump buy Greenland?
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101
Ṁ25k
2029
13%
chance

Donald Trump has expressed interest in purchasing at least part of Greenland. If the United States acquires at least part of Greenland before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves YES.

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Acquiring all of Greenland is Trump’s opening A/B test gambit. More feasible is the US acquires at least enough to set up a base and makes an agreement to defend and secure the whole island, exclusively.

@MichaelMahemoff the people of Greenland are unlikely to choose to cede parts of their territory to a foreign power for "protection". Denmark is unlikely to choose to cede parts of Greenland while it holds sovereignty, mobster tactics are even less likely to work on them.

@MalachiteEagle can offer $500k per resident or something. I don’t think it’s that complicated

@LeeBressler would you be willing to sell the US to China if the CCP gave you 500k?

@LeeBressler and again, any deal right now requires the consent of Denmark, who has sovereignty

I'm trading on the possibility that US buys a parcel for a military purposes. Seems like a useful place for missile interceptors, ports, airbases, radars, etc.

@Manifold pls sweepify

@LeeBressler The timeline is a bit long for what we normally sweepify. Will consider if there is some variant that makes sense and doesn't risk ambiguous scenarios emerging.

@Manifold would it make more sense to create a new market with an expiration that is sooner? It’s tricky because I tied the duration of the market to Trump’s term…

Y'all smoking crack

Why would Denmark sell it 🤣🤣

Denmark should announce that they're considering auctioning it off to China just for kicks

@MalachiteEagle it is a burden for them. Denmark spends a fortune on subsidies

@LeeBressler that is nothing compared to the value of Greenland. China, for example, would be willing to pay trillions for it.

@LeeBressler Would you auction off your own family members if they became a financial burden? There are lots of emotional reasons to not sell it.

bought Ṁ15 YES

Arb

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