What will the "approval rating" of GPT/OpenAI be among "The Right Wing" of the USA at the end of 2023?
What will the "approval rating" of GPT/OpenAI be among "The Right Wing" of the USA at the end of 2023?
Basic
11
Ṁ254
Jan 1
34
expected

At the end of the year I will look for the closest metric that captures the spirit of this market. Examples would be:

  • A Gallup poll that asks registered Republicans & Democrats whether they approve/disapprove of OpenAI

  • An independent survey that asks people whether they approve/disapprove of GPT specifically, and buckets them by left/right political affiliation

  • OpenAI, GPT, or Sam Altman, or LLM's in general, will all qualify as subject matter (but NOT some other specific major LLM alone)

"Right Wing" will be defined as whatever is best available in the qualifying studies/surveys/polls. Examples include:

  • Registered Republicans

  • Self-identified Republicans

  • "Conservatives"

  • Self-identified as being on the right

Basically anything that generally means "right of center."

Or anything else sufficiently similar. Resolves N/A if I can't find anything like that at the end of the year. At the end of the year I will take the latest available qualifying metric, such as a poll published in November 2023, for instance. If there's multiple qualifying metrics published within a reasonably close time period, I will average their results.

#🇺🇸 US Politics
#AI
#AI Culture War
#New Year's Resolutions 2024
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
1y

My assumption is that at some point polarization will catch up, and right-wing internet/TV personalities :will start complaining about ChatGPT and GPT-4 being "woke" because you can't make them say slurs or parrot conspiracy theories and misinformation e.g. QAnon or the 2020 election being "stolen."

1y

OpenAI: Model is so transformative we can only roll it to ourselves, our friends, and to sell sugar water

predictedLOWER 1y

@Gigacasting Bain Capital? Wasn't that Mitt Romney's old employer?

2y

Mission: Be Evil

predictedLOWER 1y

@Gigacasting do you not know what radioactive data is or are we playing pretend

2y

Are we talking only about GPT the technology, or also ChatGPT the application?

2y

@GustavoMafra Any of OpenAI's line of GPT-branded products, but not anybody else's.

2y

@LarsDoucet Which is to say, any category that includes OpenAI's stuff, even if it includes somebody else's, counts, but any category that ONLY points to someone else's product and does not include OpenAI's, does not count.

2y

Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Lars "Land is a Big Deal" Doucet

What will the "approval rating" of GPT/OpenAI be among "The Right Wing" of the USA at the end of 2023? https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/what-will-the-approval-rating-of-gp

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.

Related questions

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules