What percentage of 2025 will be left when OpenAI announces GPT-5?
What percentage of 2025 will be left when OpenAI announces GPT-5?
Basic
4
Ṁ79Dec 31
41%
chance
1D
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This resolves to the percentage of the year left when OpenAI announces GPT-5. .For example, if it is announced at 00:01 on the 31st of December, 1 day will remain out of 365, so this would resolve to (1/365) = 0.27%.
If it is not released in 2025, this resolves to 0%.
This is just for announcement, not for public release. The December 2024 announcement of o3 would count if a similar one were made for GPT-5.
Here is the question for release rather than announcement:
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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