Which companies will achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2025? ( >= week) | Manifold

Which companies will achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2025? ( >= week)

Plus

9

Ṁ2022

Dec 31

99%

xAI

76%

Google

52%

DeepSeek

45%

Antropic

35%

Mistral

35%

Other

35%

Meta

18%

Alibaba

18%

NexusFlow

For any company to resolve YES, they must achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI’s best model on the leaderboards https://lmarena.ai/.

see https://manifold.markets/Soli/which-companies-will-achieve-a-high?play=true for 2024

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it is disabled by default, i think it would be pretty unfair if this was anything other than based on the default viewing

@Bayesian agree, + the correlational statistics is suspicious and seems gameable

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