How many seats will the Liberal Party of Canada win in the next Canadian federal election?
How many seats will the Liberal Party of Canada win in the next Canadian federal election?
Plus
21
Ṁ17kJun 1
3%
0-24
2%
25-49
3%
50-74
6%
75-99
18%
100-124
68%
125+
This market will resolve to the range that includes the number of Parliament seats won by the Liberal Party of Canada in the next Canadian Federal Election.
Close date is a vague estimate. It will be adjusted in either direction depending on when the next election is called.
Update 2025-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Updated Resolution Range:
The affected category now includes outcomes from 100 to 124 seats.
The previous lower bound of 99 seats has been removed from this range.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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This is a bit of a weird market now lol -- if not obvious, this was created under the pretence of the Liberals probably getting wiped out. How things change!
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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