Background

Damascus is the capital and largest city of Syria, located in the southwestern part of the country. While Israel has conducted numerous airstrikes in Syria, primarily targeting military equipment and suspected weapons transfers, it has maintained that its military operations are focused on security interests within established buffer zones rather than territorial expansion.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if Israel's military forces take control of Damascus city before 31 january 2025. Taking control means:

• Israeli forces establish military control over the majority of Damascus

• The Syrian government loses effective control of the city to Israeli forces

• Israeli military presence in Damascus is not temporary (lasting more than 48 hours)

The market will resolve NO if:

• Israel does not take control of Damascus before 1 february 2025

• Israel conducts military operations near Damascus but does not establish control

• Israel only conducts airstrikes or limited operations without taking control of the city

Considerations

• Israel has historically focused on defensive and strategic military operations rather than territorial conquest in Syria

• Taking Damascus would represent a major escalation and significant departure from Israel's stated military objectives

• Such an action would likely have major regional and international implications

• The presence of other military forces in the region, including Russian and Iranian-backed forces, adds complexity to any potential military operations targeting Damascus

  Background

  Damascus is the capital and largest city of Syria, located in the southwestern part of the country. While Israel has conducted numerous airstrikes in Syria, primarily targeting military equipment and suspected weapons transfers, it has maintained that its military operations are focused on security interests within established buffer zones rather than territorial expansion.

  Resolution Criteria

  This market will resolve YES if Israel's military forces take control of Damascus city before 1 february 2025. Taking control means:

  • Israeli forces establish military control over the majority of Damascus

  • The Syrian government loses effective control of the city to Israeli forces

  • Israeli military presence in Damascus is not temporary (lasting more than 48 hours)

  The market will resolve NO if:

  • Israel does not take control of Damascus before 1 february 2025

  • Israel conducts military operations near Damascus but does not establish control

  • Israel only conducts airstrikes or limited operations without taking control of the city

  Considerations

  • Israel has historically focused on defensive and strategic military operations rather than territorial conquest in Syria

  • Taking Damascus would represent a major escalation and significant departure from Israel's stated military objectives

  • Such an action would likely have major regional and international implications

  • The presence of other military forces in the region, including Russian and Iranian-backed forces, adds complexity to any potential military operations targeting Damascus