Will a war between Israel and Syria happen before January 1st, 2030.

Since I don’t think the situation for the past 10 years counts despite armed attacks, I will consider a war to mean at least 200 deaths in less than a month long period.

I will not bet in this market.

Background

Israel and Syria have a complex history of conflict, with ongoing tensions centered around territorial disputes, particularly the Golan Heights. It is unclear what the relationship between the new Syrian government and Israel will be like.

Will a war between Israel and Syria happen before January 1st, 2030.

Since I don’t think the situation for the past 10 years counts despite armed attacks, I will consider a war to mean at least deaths in less than a month long period.

I will not bet in this market.Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if:

• There are at least 200 combined military and civilian casualties deaths from both sides

• These casualties occur within a period of 30 days or less

• The casualties are directly related to military conflict between Syria and Israel

• The deaths occur before January 1st, 2030

The market will resolve NO if:

• January 1st, 2030 passes without meeting the above criteria

Considerations

• Current Israeli airstrikes in Syria and occasional Syrian responses do not constitute war under this market's definition unless they reach the 200 death threshold

• The casualties must happen within Syrian and/or Israel

• Casualties must be directly attributable to conflict between these two nations

• If something like the recent war in Lebanon where Hezbollah counts.

• Casualties from internal conflicts or conflicts with other nations will not count towards the 200 KIA threshold