Will a model achieve a METR 50% time-horizon of 4+ hours by the end of 2025?
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METR's 50%-time horizon doubling time trendline from more recent models indicates that a model released towards the end of 2025 will likely have a time horizon of over 4 hours. Will this come true?
See links for more details:
https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/SuvWoLaGiNjPDcA7d/metr-s-evaluation-of-gpt-5
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/deesrjitvXM4xYGZd/metr-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks
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