This market resolves to YES if Sarah Wagenknecht is a member of a party other than her current party (Die Linke) by the end of 2024. This market resolves to NO if she is only a member of "Die Linke" or if she is not a member of any party.
1,000
3.00Her party seems to be officially launched
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-sahra-wagenknecht-presents-left-wing-conservative-party/a-67923808
https://www.zeit.de/news/2024-01/09/cdu-fraktionschef-sieht-wagenknechts-parteigruendung-gelassen
https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/wagenknecht-partei-buendnis-gruendung-100.html
@marketwise Could it be that you misread the question? This resolves to "YES" if she leaves "Die Linke" and then founds a new party until the end of 2024!
According to ARD sources, Wagenknecht will announce the upcoming founding of a new party on Monday. "As recently as last week, the 54-year-old said in an interview with tagesschau.de that a possible party could be founded in 2024 at the earliest."
https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/innenpolitik/wagenknecht-parteigruendung-100.html
Just for the record, the title could be better. I read "member of the Germany party 'Die Linke'" instead of "member of a Germany party other than 'Die Linke'", which is the opposite. I have only myself to blame, of course. Nevertheless, negations (like 'other than') should be avoided in titles in my opinion.
All signs indicate that Sarah Wagenknecht is in the process of founding a new party. Since her statements in this regard are still vague and rather reserved, I assume that the party will not be founded this year, but in time to run in the state elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg in September 2024, since a high level of support for a Wagenknecht party can be expected in these states.
https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/regional/saarland/sr-neu-gegruendeter-verein-koennte-wagenknecht-partei-vorbereiten-100.html
