
Will the US officially recognize the sovereignty of the State of Palestine by 2030?
Plus
28
Ṁ33172030
19%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to YES once that happens
Resolves to NO in 2030
I will use sources such as these to resolve to YES:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_the_State_of_Palestine
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-that-recognize-palestine
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Sort by:
@angeluspolitian This is not really about if Palestine exists, it's about if Jerusalem is part of Israel. I'm not sure what happens for a US citizen born in Ramallah or Jericho, say. Depends when. Do they write the Ottoman Empire if before 1918? I guess they would probably be dead. British Mandate if before 1948? Jordan if before 1967? What do they write for the 1967-Oslo period? After Oslo? I don't know how any of this works.
Related questions
Related questions
By September 22, 2025, will more than 155 UN member states have formally recognized State of Palestine?
UK recognizes Palestine as a state at the UN General Assembly in September 2025
53% chance
UK recognizes Palestine as a country in September?
65% chance
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025?
12% chance
Will the United States recognize a state of Palestine before the end of 2028?
17% chance
Will Israel recognise a Palestinian state by 2030?
8% chance
Will the United Nations pass a resolution recognizing Palestinian statehood before September 30, 2025?
19% chance
Will Palestine become a full United Nations member state before 2030?
14% chance
Will Palestine be fully recognized as a United Nations member state by the end of 2029?
30% chance
Will Palestine be fully recognized as a United Nations member state by the end of 2026?
8% chance