Duplicate of https://manifold.markets/Forrest/stormlight-archive-who-will-bqvhzf#vtlltx8m7zj, because that was using the old multiple-choice market mechanism.
When I finish reading the fifth Stormlight novel, I will resolve this to the identity of Odium's Champion. (During the agreed-upon contest of champions, if it occurs during the book. Otherwise, the last character Odium names as his champion during the book.)
Last I heard, the plan was for it to be published in December of 2024, and I've consistently read these within a month of publication in the past, so this market will probably resolve in late December 2024 or early January 2025. Proposed answers should consist of the name of a character, though I may allow exceptions such as "No one" if it seems appropriate.
The answer 'Vyre' refers to the character known as Vyre at the end of Rhythm of War.
The answer 'No-one' will be chosen if Odium does not pick a champion in book 5.
1,000
3.00I am intentionally holding off on resolving this for now, since
1) I need to read the book before I can resolve the market, which might take me another week or so
2) I want to give other participants a chance to read the book without seeing the answer here beforehand
Expect it to be resolved around the end of the year, unless folks request otherwise.
Limit order up @ 20%
(Btw here is my prediction if you're interested: We know there is a loophole in the contract that Odium has found, and when I read the exact wording of the contract one possibility jumps out: the contract has the following structure: contest of champions, to the death, on X month Y day Z hour. If Odium wins Consequence A. If Dalinar wins Consequence B. One case is unhandled! What if Z hour passes without any deaths? then no outlined consequence comes to pass: Odium gets out of the contract.
Now I see that you're YES on contest of champions ending in a tie and I guess that could happen with Adolin and Gavinor as champions too, but I think those would be hard to render willing imo, it's simpler that the champion being Vyre or El and just constantly running away or sth till the hour is up
Btw^2 I'm down to give limit orders for anything concerning the Cosmere if you want (except in my own market))