@DylanSlagh

Add Vermin Supreme

@Erskine no

Can you please add Ro Khanna as an option?

@dg done

I think I'm going all in on Newsom 2028, at LEAST as the candidate. Yes, he might be one of the worst possible candidates. Yes, Republicans have prepared themselves for like 20 years to run against him specifically. HOWEVER: I believe that government regulations are going to be one of the biggest issues in 2028 (other than abortion and the economy), following four upcoming years of them being rolled back, and I think CA's regulatory standards will give Newsom the strongest argument in his favor. Also, he's evil, which should play pretty well with the electorate apparently

@Marnix I think he's the Jeb Bush of 2028.

arbing with https://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/who-will-be-the-us-presidential-ele-fb4966f81a9a

Trump at 1.1% here and 11% in the other market? Strong arbitrage opportunity

The rise of the ubermensch

Interesting implied probability combining this with other markets. I’m seeing Harris hovering around 33% for 2024 these last few days. So combining the markets, P(re-election) would be ~85%? I guess there’s a chance she loses to Trump in 2024 and they bring her back again in 2028, but that seems highly unlikely. And the chance of Harris not getting the 2024 nomination is almost inconsequential in markets here at this point.

I know these markets are not efficient enough to combine for implied odds in this way… still startling how little difference there is between the Harris 2024 and 2028 markets given that she is tracking for the 2024 nomination now.

Ugh never mind… brain blip. Harris hovering at ~43% for 2024 here, not 33. Implied odds for 2028 reelection of 65% still may be a touch high but not wildly off.

Kamala is finished after 2024...

2028 I'd going to be the most open of primaries. Dems have a weak bench filled with Governors that have destroyed thier states. Thier congressmen in the house and senate are just too radical. The GOP civil war continues with the establishment vs MAGA to establish for control.

For some reason, my money would be on Mark Robinson (Gov NC) He is charismatic and brilliant.

@DylanSlagh Mark Robinson (Gov NC) or Sarah Sanders (Gov AR)

He refused to endorse Biden this time around, citing that it caused "division". Hence I am purchasing a little bit of YES.

Currently favored 5:2 over Ted Cruz, according to this market.

Sure, but who's gonna come in second place?

There are lots of competent people out there but the intersection between them and people who want to & can get nominated by a party is basically zero

@JonathanRay Primaries are a pretty strong filter for being an economically illiterate demagogue, especially for democrats

@JonathanRay Hillary and Biden and Obama are all very economically moderate by Dem standards. I see an argument for Biden not being economically moderate in practice, but his brand was boring moderacy.

@MichaelWheatley They’re all really old (too old to run in 2028) and it seems like the younger rising stars in the party are much less economically moderate

@JonathanRay Should government should fund healthcare for illegal immigrants? All candidates raised their hand.

@mvdm roughly speaking — conditional on Trump not elected in 2024 (~50%), being in OK health and eligible (~40%), I think it’s >50% that he runs.