Will there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027?
Will there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027?
➕
Plus
47
Ṁ7412
2026
21%
chance

“My prediction is next year we’ll have over a thousand, maybe a few thousand, Optimus robots working at Tesla.”

https://x.com/SmokeAwayyy/status/1801400924096839732

This was a prediction made during the Tesla 2024 Annual Stockholder Meeting.

I take "working" to mean autonomously deployed in factories and performing productive labor.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
5mo

Side commentary; it's weird that Elon seems to want this to happen. The point of Optimus is supposed to be that humanoid robots will be "good enough" at a huge range of tasks, because they can interact physically with the world in ways similar to a human. The point is not supposed to be that humanoid robots will be better at assembly line manufacturing!! That's where specialized robots obviously shine. Am I missing something?

15d

@diracdeltafunk I don't really think you're missing something, though presumably he understands what humans are currently doing at Tesla and whether it would be useful to have a few thousand bots around.

I did notice that he focused mainly on "everyone will have a bot to do chores" and not "everyone will have a bot mining raw materials and assembling shit 24/7" at the last shareholder meeting though

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules