What will be true of the first model to cross 1400 on lmarena.ai?
Basic
4
Ṁ243Apr 1
49%
Gemini Exp
2%
ChatGPT 4o
60%
o1
31%
Gemini 2.0
2%
Claude 3.5 Opus
12%
Claude 4
11%
Grok
15%
OpenAI model code named Orion
16%
GPT 5
Will resolve if a model stays at or above 1400 for a week and has a 95% CI with a lower bound of at least 1395 at the end of that week (somewhat arbitrary criteria to ensure the score is based on a sufficient amount of votes)
Will N/A if they change the scoring significantly so that a current model passes 1400.
Current rankings (11/22/24):
Gemini Exp 1121: 1365
ChatGPT 4o Latest (2024-11-20): 1360
Gemini Exp 1114: 1343
o1 preview: 1334
o1 mini: 1308
Gemini 1.5 Pro-002: 1301
Grok 2 0813: 1289
Yi Lightning: 1287
GPT 4o 2024-05-13: 1285
Claude 3.5 Sonnet (20241022): 1282
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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