In what year will the next pandemic occur that is as bad or worse than COVID?
Basic
31
Ṁ12742101
2048
expected
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Pandemic severity tradeoffs include mortality, transmissibility, scale, and any other relevant considerations.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@CarsonGale In the year: if I bet 2030, I only win if it happens in 2030 precisely. By the year: if I bet 2030, I win if it happens any time between now and the end of 2030.
@vluzko Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I think this distinction misunderstands how profits are calculated in this market structure. If the precise year ends up being 2030 and you bet "Lower" from 2040, you will earn profit.
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be another pandemic by the year 2030?
50% chance
Will there be a pandemic which most people agree is worse than COVID by the year 2050?
54% chance
Will there be a pandemic at least as deadly as COVID-19 by March 1st 2044?
59% chance
Will there be another global pandemic before 2030?
40% chance
Will there be another major pandemic before the end of 2030
27% chance
When will we have another pandemic killing more people than COVID-19?
Will the WHO declare another pandemic before 2030?
51% chance
Will another outbreak on par with covid-19 happen within the decade.
37% chance
Will a global pandemic of a novel infectious disease, similar to COVID-19, occur by 2030?
35% chance
Will the next pandemic be overall worse than covid-19 in absolute, global terms?
28% chance