Will the next pandemic be overall worse than covid-19 in absolute, global terms?
Will the next pandemic be overall worse than covid-19 in absolute, global terms?
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Ṁ161Dec 31
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Resolves as of my judgement about both 1) that an ongoing or recent event is or has been a pandemic and 2) that it has been worse than covid-19 in the most relevant macro aspect(s) (could be sthg from global overmortality, well being, economic loss, societal disruption, collective trauma or the like but if something else seems relevant, I wont restrict it to these). I will be open to arguments and evidence.
If this question resolves, I expect this question to cause me an exhausting reflection process on what counts as good or bad (once again). Or not if things are really bad.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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