Uses the standard counting system - presidents in nonconsecutive terms get two numbers. Joe Biden is currently the 46th president.
1,000
3.00Arbitrage opportunity: https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-us-presi
Vance now has two clear paths to 48: He can win in 2028, or Trump can fail to finish his term.
Really decent chance now of Kamala for a bit and then Trump
Not sure if I'd call 5% decent but good thinking. Here is a market splitting out Trump's possibilities going forward
By the same token:
These currently suggest a probability of about 8% that Ramaswamy becomes VP.
Surprised not to see Trump here, there is clear story of Biden dies in next year + Trump wins 2024 election.
The YES shares I bought on Donald Trump Jr. were an accident; I see no Sell button but will reverse that if I figure out how.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00