Before what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?
Basic
5
Ṁ2782100
23%
2040
43%
2050
13%
2075
11%
2100
10%
Never
Resolution Criteria:
A report published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal demonstrating only a quantum computer was used to obtain the factorization answers for RSA-2048
challenge number.
The RSA-2048 challenge number can be found on Wikipedia:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_numbers
The correct answer will resolve to the earliest date. For example if a quantum computer meeting those requirements is built in 2035 then the correct answer is 2040.
Never means that a quantum computer meeting those requirements is impossible to build. If the date is January 1st, 2100 and a quantum computer meeting those requirements is not built then the question will resolve to Never.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040?
59% chance
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045?
65% chance
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050?
69% chance
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2035?
42% chance
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2030?
24% chance
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2075?
76% chance
Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?
34% chance
Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?
25% chance
When will Quantum computing become viable?
2030
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2100?
86% chance