@mods Creator inactive. Resolves No.

This market is set to close later this week, maybe it should be open until all five eastern States have had their elections? These are the respective dates:

• Brandenburg: 2024-09-22

• Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: 2026

• Saxony: 2024-09-01

• Saxony-Anhalt: 2026

• Thuringia: 2024-09-01

Berlin votes in 2026, if you want to count them.

@mods this is probably misresolved. It makes no sense to talk about forming state governments after a federal election, and the question is especially whether CDU would try to form a government with AfD in the Eastern states.

If you stand by your decision, I'd please like to know how this question could conceivably have resolved YES by your judgement.

@BrunoParga There is also another version of the same question here:

/timomm1978/will-the-cdu-in-eastern-german-stat-6a2856b03f20

Overall, it seems like the creator didn't provide good clarity on the situation. It seems to be asking about the state level elections and state level governments. Dealing with this is not obvious, but we just have to make a best effort to understand what was being asked.

I liked the approach from your original comment here, but I think it would be a stretch to call 2026 the 'next election' since it was really far away from the time the question was asked. Let's say:

• The 'next election' meant the 2024 elections in Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia (even though they weren't all on the same date, they're at least close)

• The 2026 elections for the places listed won't matter

Is there anything from your original comment in January 2024 that did not play out as expected? If so, I'd resolve both of these similar markets to No.

@Eliza, thank you for your comment. I think it is fairly common to talk of "the next elections", whenever they're scheduled to be held; they could even happen earlier than the dates I mentioned, by means of early dissolutions. I think the text of the question is quite clear, with the possible exception of whether Berlin counts.

But in the end, if this stays resolved as NO, which based on the date of resolution I believe was done due to the federal elections, then I guess it is what it is...

@BrunoParga My guess is the market got on anyone's radar again because of the federal elections, but let's ignore the actual timing, it's not relevant to the market at all.

How about we reopen this one (and also the other one), and wait until the at least the last two states listed have also had elections. And ignore Berlin.

@Eliza And if @timomm1978 shows up again, they can clarify and/or resolve however they see fit.

(I still think someone can construct an argument that the market only referred to the 3 with elections in 2024...)

@Eliza I think reopening until the MVP and Saxony-Anhalt elections is the best course of action. Berlin is a gray area and frankly it's not the one where the question might resolve YES anyway, so ignoring it is fine. And sure, if the creator comes back, it's their market (though I hope they'll clarify whatever decision they make).

I think your proposed solution is good.