Will a second Asian language novel win a Hugo award for Best Novel by EOY 2030?
Will a second Asian language novel win a Hugo award for Best Novel by EOY 2030?
Plus
14
Ṁ3052031
68%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The first was The Three-Body Problem by Cixin Liu (translated by Ken Liu) in 2015
Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hugo_Award_for_Best_Novel
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Which novels will be *nominated* for a Hugo award in 2025
Which novellas will be *nominated* for a Hugo award in 2025
Will a completely AI-written novel win a Hugo Award by 2035?
15% chance
Will Sam Hughes (qntm) win a Hugo Award by end 2026
38% chance
Will George R. R. Martin ever win the Hugo Award for Best Novel?
28% chance
Will someone from FutureHouseSF win a Nobel prize by EOY 2037?
27% chance
Will there be an LLM which can do fluent conlang translations by EOY 2024?
72% chance
Will a book by Brandon Sanderson win a Goodreads Choice Award in 2025?
47% chance
Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?
68% chance
Will a movie that has at least some AI-generated dialogue win an Oscar by EOY 2028?
34% chance