♟️What will happen during the 2024 World Chess Championship? [ADD RESPONSES]

Basic

Ṁ2883

Dec 10

99.2%

four or more draws

99.0%

five or more draws

99.0%

six or more draws

99.0%

A position that has never occurred in the Lichess Masters database is reached within the first 5 moves (10 ply) in any game

99.0%

A player loses a game on time (doesn't include not showing up to the game)

99.0%

7 or more draws

72%

queenside castle happens at least once per player across multiple games

58%

the champion wins at least once with the black pieces

34%

Arbiter called during the game for reason other than draw by repetition

33%

An endgame that is a tablebase draw ends with a victory for either player (by resignation or checkmate, not by loss on time etc.)

33%

both players lose with the white pieces

28%

Four knights game opening is played

25%

both players win with the black pieces

24%

Pawn is captured en passant

23%

ruy lopez opening is played

19%

Sicilian opening played at least once

14%

an irregular opening is played (A00 in the opening book)

13%

One player wins without a queen on the board while the other player has one

13%

a player plays an opening with an animal name

10%

A player resigns in an objectively balanced position (eval in Stockfish on Lichess at depth 20 between -1.00 and +1.00)

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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15 Comments

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bought Ṁ181 YES

@strutheo Check out today's game 11 on Lichess, 5. ...Bg4 was a novelty

@strutheo We're up to six draws now.

@strutheo resolves yes

bought Ṁ220 YES

@ADings Ding lost on time in Game 3

@R2D2sm5g not up to me to resolve it
@strutheo

@ADings to clarify -- if a game ever reaches a tablebase draw, and later ends in a victory, then this resolves yes? E.g. if a tablebase-drawn position is reached and then one of the players blunders and gets checkmated

@diracdeltafunk I'm sorry, I don't follow. What exactly is needed to clarify?

@ADings I guess I want to make sure that it would count for only a single position (1 ply) in the game to be a tablebase draw.

@diracdeltafunk Okay. Yes that would count.

@ADings cheers, thanks!

@strutheo Resolves yes as of Game 2

@strutheo Since this is Manifold, where stupid semantics rule the world, I'm going to put it out there that according to Wikipedia, female cats are called queens, which means that CLEARLY the Queen's Gambit opening will make this resolve YES :-)

@ADings does this include resignation?

@Nightsquared No

reposted

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