On May 1st 2029 will the highest grossing movie of all time in the USA be a Superhero film?

@mattyb i mean a traditional superhero , as judged by manifold or me if need be.
star wars is not superhero. (pretty much) anything marvel/DC is superhero.
scott pilgrim is not superhero

@mattyb comic origin may be a good idea, but what if there is a superhero made just for movies that takes off

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What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.

Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.

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