Manifold market to test this tweet from Logan Kilpatrick
https://x.com/OfficialLoganK/status/1873475880632438921
Going to set the deadline as end of 2030
Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:
Multiple choice question: "What would make you think 2030 is shockingly different from today?"
Use the responses as a guideline.
Examples include:
Mobile phones
Widespread internet access
1,000
3.00@DanielPeters My daily life changed drastically by working remotely. I think that was pretty unexpected before COVID.
That's enough time for smart glasses to become popular. A video of a crowd in 2030 may contain people doing naruto-style ninjutsu with their hands to gesture/interact with virtual interfaces. That might end up looking... pretty different
@MalachiteEagle I have a feeling the tech will progress faster than social norms, even if smart glasses become practical you might still get harassed for using them in public besides maybe the bay area
@TheAllMemeingEye is there any record of how people in the street reacted to the first mobile phones? Can imagine there's some really niche archive footage on youtube or something
@TheAllMemeingEye found this, but not quite what I was looking for: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZdAM8sy2AqQ
@MalachiteEagle I remember a lot of silly indignation - 'I hate it when people annoy me with their personal conversations & ruin the quiet of my public spaces'.
Anyone have good ideas for criteria? I was thinking ... does your daily routine 5 years ago look the same, but that's really kind of ambiguous.
@rohanvisme maybe a manifold poll asking the question, so it covers the average subjective perception?
@rohanvisme You could start by telling us how far back you have to go from 2025 to hit the "shockingly different" (or whatever the inverse of "shockingly similar" is, if not that) threshold in your own eyes. Is 2025 shockingly similar to 2020?
@marvingardens I'm going to go with a previous poster's idea (maybe I'm mutating it a little).
Multiple choice question that asks "What would make you think 2030 is shockingly different from today?" And use that as a guideline.
If you want my personal take, I'd say things like mobile phones and widespread internet access would be things that would've made me say things are dissimilar.
@rohanvisme Is "mobile phones and widespread internet access" indicating a 2020-->2025 difference? Or a 2005-->2025 difference.
If you were resolving a market today that said "Will the world look shockingly similar 15 years from now", created in 2010, would you resolve that YES or NO? Which past year is the cutoff where it flips from "shockingly similar to 2025" to something else?
@AlexanderTheGreater personally I'd say between 2010 and now there have been 4 shocking changes for a typical westerner:
The rise of ubiquitous smart technology and accompanying near total exodus of commerce, media, and human interaction to the internet
The rise of anti-establishment populist right wing leaders e.g. Donald Trump, Boris Johnson, Jair Bolsanaro, Javier Milei
The COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns
The rise of near human level generative AI
In this case I guess I'm thinking something counts if it was both extremely significant and seemingly super unexpected from a layman perspective
@TheAllMemeingEye those are definitely big changes. Yet I don't look back to 2010 and am shocked by how different life was. Maybe the day-to-day differences are easily forgotten or it's the boiling frog thing of maybe the practical impact on how my average day looks isn't all that different? 🤷🏼♂️
@AlexanderTheGreater lol what's the boiling frog thing? I hope you're not a professional frog boiler haha 🐸
@TheAllMemeingEye I'm referring to the old metaphor that a frog whom you put in water that you slowly heat up won't notice that it's being boiled alive. It's untrue, but might be an appt image for how change can be missed if it happens slowly and now "shockingly different" is barely perceptible.