Will nuclear power account for 30% or more of global electricity generation by 2035?
Will nuclear power account for 30% or more of global electricity generation by 2035?
Basic
10
Ṁ6262035
9%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will resolve yes if by the closing date at least 30% of global power is generated through nuclear fission (or fusion/other nuclear methods if made viable by then).
I'll resolve for no if nuclear energy clearly accounts for less than 30% of power.
Resolves N/A on the off-chance that a resolving statistic is unclear/inconsistent across major agencies by 2035 for whatever reason.
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bought Ṁ13 NO1y
No way. It is below 10% and decreasing since years. https://ember-climate.org/data/data-tools/data-explorer/
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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