Resolution Criteria:
The market resolves “Yes” if Bitcoin (BTC) reaches or exceeds $160,000 USD at any point in 2025, based on data from Coinbase. The price must be reflected as the high/low price in any 1-minute candlestick during the year. If Bitcoin does not hit $160K during 2025, the market resolves “No.”
Resolution Date & Time: December 31, 2025, at 23:59 PST, or earlier if Bitcoin crosses $160K at any time during the year.
1,000
3.00my vibe was pretty low here and option charts back me up as of 3/5, giving just ~5% probability of this.
i think these sorts of market price markets are pretty stupid because of this: trading based on whatever the options-implied distribution is gives tremendous alpha literally all the time, since anyone who seriously had insight into the market would just trade actual options
What is this?
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and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00