Will Artemis III be flown with a crewed landing?
Will Artemis III be flown with a crewed landing?
Plus
20
Ṁ14102040
44%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
In August 2023, due to delays in the development of Starship, NASA officials expressed an openness to flying Artemis 3 without a crewed landing. In this case, the mission may become a crewed visit to the Lunar Gateway.
Resolves YES if Artemis III is flown and a lunar landing is planned to be attempted as part of the mission
Resolves NO if Artemis III is flown and a lunar landing is not planned to be attempted as part of the mission
Resolves N/A if Artemis III is not flown before 2040
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bought Ṁ20 NO from 58% to 50% 1y
Interesting question! I think Yes, I think they'd rather delay Artemis 3 (even longer) rather than fly without. But chances close to 60% seem right for now.
It's also not like SLS has such an amazing cadence that they'll run out of space by delaying a year.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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