A new open weights reasoning model w/ <= 13B parameters will be released before Jan 1st 2025
Basic
3
Ṁ107Dec 31
65%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market predicts whether a new open weights AI reasoning model with 13B or fewer parameters, comparable in performance to QwQ and o1-mini, will be released before January 1st, 2025.
Resolution criteria: Official announcement or release of the model by an AI company, with published parameter count and open weights.
References:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will anyone be able to get OpenAI’s new model o1 to leak its system message by EOY 2024?
96% chance
Will a flagship (>60T training bytes) open-weights LLM from Meta which doesn't use a tokenizer be released in 2025?
43% chance
Will any 10 trillion+ parameter language model that follows instructions be released to the public before 2026?
51% chance
Will OpenAI release weights to a model designed to be easily interpretable (2024)?
8% chance
Will model weights obtaining >90% on the Winogrande benchmark become publicly available in 2024?
32% chance
By March 14, 2025, will there be an AI model with over 10 trillion parameters?
62% chance
Will OpenAI make GPT3.5 or 4 model weights open before 2025?
7% chance
Will OpenAI Release a Model Capable of Reliably performing Gradeschool Math from Reasoning by Jan 1, 2025?
79% chance
Will OpenAI offer a model that updates its weights while running during 2025?
26% chance
Will a “good” (fine-tuned) opensource model utilizing chain-of-thought reasoning like o1 be released by EOY 2024?
87% chance