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@mods Resolves NO.

Game 14: Ding–Gukesh, 0–1

Game 14, a 58-move win for Gukesh, was played on 12 December 2024. The win resulted in Gukesh being crowned World Champion. Since the scores were tied at 6½-6½ entering this game, a win for either player would have meant winning the match; a draw would have led to a series of tie-break games to be played on the following day.

King's Indian Attack, French, Reversed Grünfeld Variation (ECO A08)
1. Nf3 d5 2. g3 c5 3. Bg2 Nc6 4. d4 e6 5. 0-0 cxd4 6. Nxd4 Nge7 7. c4 Nxd4 8. Qxd4 Nc6 9. Qd1 d4 10. e3 Bc5 11. exd4 Bxd4 12. Nc3 0-0 13. Nb5 Bb6 14. b3 a6 15. Nc3 Bd4 16. Bb2 e5 17. Qd2 Be6 18. Nd5 b5 19. cxb5 axb5 20. Nf4 exf4 21. Bxc6 Bxb2 22. Qxb2 Rb8 23. Rfd1 Qb6 24. Bf3 fxg3 25. hxg3 b4 26. a4 bxa3 27. Rxa3 g6 28. Qd4 Qb5 29. b4 Qxb4 30. Qxb4 Rxb4 31. Ra8 Rxa8 32. Bxa8 g5 33. Bd5 Bf5 34. Rc1 Kg7 35. Rc7 Bg6 36. Rc4 Rb1+ 37. Kg2 Re1 38. Rb4 h5 39. Ra4 Re5 40. Bf3 Kh6 41. Kg1 Re6 42. Rc4 g4 43. Bd5 Rd6 44. Bb7 Kg5 45. f3 f5 46. fxg4 hxg4 47. Rb4 Bf7 48. Kf2 Rd2+ 49. Kg1 Kf6 50. Rb6+ Kg5 51. Rb4 Be6 52. Ra4 Rb2 53. Ba8 Kf6 54. Rf4 Ke5 55. Rf2 Rxf2 56. Kxf2 Bd5 57. Bxd5 Kxd5 58. Ke3 Ke5 0–1

o7

@mr_mino @Manifold @SirSalty Resolve No

Time control

Game 14 will likely (>75%) be a draw. By rating Ding should have the advantage in rapid. Unclear if his dubious time management will spell disaster in rapid or if he's just doing his best Grischuk impression

@SentientTree every single game since game 10 has had a player get serious winning chances even if they fumbled them, and mutual time trouble. The only scenario where this game would be a foregone draw would be if Ding believed he was such an overwhelming favorite in the tiebreak that he forced a draw himself, which he precluded yesterday. Having white in a one-shot knockout is probably better odds for him than a tiebreak. IMO there's a higher than even chance game 14 is decisive.

Put some NO limit orders up in case anyone wants to exit. Although with how volatile this match has been, maybe it will be me

Game 13: Gukesh–Ding, ½–½

@DistinctlySkeptical

very spicy

It's too late but if I could sell my Gukesh stock, I would. Ding has the mandate of heaven

@dlin007 Yeah, I flipped my order today. Not just the game result, but Ding played like DingFish 17. Hes so back

@StarkLN I mean today was an exceptional game - he could still lose but I'm just not confident in Gukesh anymore, he's playing nervously and playing bad moves quickly - worked out for him yesterday but got busted today.

@dlin007 Gukesh chair was vibrating so badly yesterday. The boy is finished, go Ding!

@dlin007 this was clearly a reverse jinx...never doubted you Mr. Gukesh

More detailed options for the rest of the Classical portion

https://manifold.markets/ChinmayTheMathGuy/exact-result-of-games-12-13-14-in-w

And a round to Gukesh

Game 11: Gukesh–Ding, 1–0

Overall: 6-5

Game 11 Ding has currently spent more than an hour before making his 5th move. Position is equal but holy hell his time management is unbelievably bad.

@JeremiahJohnson gukesh just spent 1 hour in a single move

Game 10: Ding–Gukesh, ½–½

5-5

Arb: