If Trump wins, will Manifold users vote that his performance has been better than they expected by the midterms?
Basic
8
Ṁ1102026
38%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If Trump wins the 2024 presidential election, I will conduct a simple YES/NO poll on Manifold titled "Has Trump performed better than you expected as President?" I will post this poll on or around November 3rd, 2026. If after one week, >50% of the votes are YES, this market will resolve YES. If not, this market resolves NO.
If Trump is not elected President, this market resolves N/A and all traders get their mana back.
Companion market:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
If Trump is elected president, will Manifold think he made a serious attempt to remain in charge after 4 years are up?
31% chance
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?
51% chance
🗳️Who would Manifold vote for over both Trump AND Biden in 1-on-1 presidential elections? [ADD RESPONSES]
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?
56% chance
🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]
Will a Manifold user show up in the same picture as Donald Trump before the end of 2024?
42% chance
Will the Manifold experience get worse after the US election, according to a poll taken 3 months after the US election?
51% chance
Will Manifold be more accurate than Polymarket in forecasting the 2024 election?
45% chance
Will Manifold think Trump's threat to democracy was overblown at the end of 2025?
38% chance
Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform FiveThirtyEight's?
55% chance