In 2024, according to Wikipedia, 2 American have ever already contracted H5N1 (avian bird flu), in 2022 and 2024; neither has died (of the disease). Will an American die of H5N1 this year?
See sibling:
1,000
3.00@mattyb can you show me where in the Wikipedia page you linked it says anything about American nationality? All I see is a table of number of cases happening in each country, with 1 case happening in the US in 2022 and 46 cases happening in the US in 2024.
If you are using Wikipedia, based on what I see, what they report is cases happening in the United States, not cases in Americans. Foreigners in America count, Americans abroad don't. So if that's indeed what Wikipedia is reporting and if you are indeed using Wikipedia as a source, then perhaps you could rephrase the question?
@snazzlePop this guy won't answer... I just bet 1 mana just so I can one-star whatever resolution he gives 🤣
Edit: for whatever it's worth, I don't endorse this comment anymore, after writing it in a moment of reactivity. I've offered my apologies for it to OP below.
@BrunoParga @mattyb He probably just didn't see it amidst all his other notifications -- I know Matty to be a good guy who resolves markets with integrity.
Yo Matty, this guy is asking a good question. Can you affirm that Bruno is interpreting this market correctly and edit the title accordingly?
hello friend. I used “American” as the official demonym for the United States. I meant the two to be synonymous, as WHO regards a person in a US hospital as being associated with the US, not citizenship.
I didn’t see these comments of yours
I just bet 1 mana just so I can one-star whatever resolution he gives 🤣
I’ve been using this app far less recently, because my personal life has had a lot of not good shit happening in it, and because this app only feels like work to me these days. If not for Snazzle you would’ve been my first blocked Manifolder right now.
Thoroughly, from the bottom of my heart, fuck you for doing this to anyone 🖕, exploiting the uneven dynamic on Manifold where you get to review me and I don’t get to review you, as a trader and participant in my market.
It’s shit like this that makes me never want open my notis again.
@mattyb you are right - the comment about the review was assholish. I apologize for that.
But at the same time: I made a simple request, that you change "American" for "in the United States". First of all, because that's what you're actually asking; this would make your market better. It is literally what your source says. You already say you're not concerned with citizenship, so it'd have cost you less to change it than to reply to my message.
Second, you should change it because THESE THINGS ARE NOT THE SAME. Not all Americans are in the USA, and, more importantly, NOT EVERYONE IN THE US IS AMERICAN. You might think this is a minor issue, but there are people who get their lives massively fucked because of that - myself included. And it's only gonna get worse, much much worse. I'm sorry to hear you have bad stuff going on, and I hope it's not nearly on the level of "being thrown out of the only country you've ever lived and thrown into a much more dangerous one where you barely even speak the language and have no connection to". (Fortunately not what happened to me, but I care about those to whom it does happen.)
So, go ahead and change the wording out of empathy with tens of millions of human beings. And then, whether you change it or not, make my day by blocking me. Be the guy who could have answered the initial question with a simple, effortless, trivial "yes", yet chose to escalate and double down. Be the guy who blocks someone who proposes a simple, actionable, empathy-based, your-buddy-validated improvement to your market. Be the guy who not only doesn't take feedback, but complains about a "power dynamic" on a fake money site where reviews are weighted by the amount of the bet - or who cares that much about a site that doesn't do this weighting.
And to close it off, I sincerely hope your not-good shit gets sorted out.
The number of tests being run for H5N1 is very low: https://www.niskanencenter.org/the-u-s-can-and-should-test-more-people-for-bird-flu/.
“During the press conference, Dawn O’Connell, assistant secretary for preparedness and response at HHS, revealed that 4.8 million doses of H5N1 vaccine that has been stockpiled in bulk is in the process of being put into vials — a process called fill and finish. This is a little less than half of the vaccine believed to be effective against the current strain of H5N1 that is stored in the National Pre-Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Stockpile.
O’Connell said the decision to make the vaccine more readily deployable was taken a couple of weeks ago. “It takes a couple of months to be able to fill and finish vaccine doses… so I thought it made sense, given what we were seeing,” she said.
O’Connell said a decision to use the vaccine has not been made.”
@SusanneinFrance Cases in the US seem mild:
“This is only the third human case ever of H5N1 reported in the United States. A man in Texas who worked on a dairy farm was infected there earlier in this outbreak. The country’s first case, in the spring of 2022, was in a man in Colorado who was involved in culling H5N1-infected birds in a poultry outbreak there.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said a nasal swab taken from the Michigan farm worker was negative for flu. But a swab of the person’s eye was sent to the CDC, where it tested positive for H5 flu virus, though final confirmation that it’s the H5N1 subtype is pending genetic sequencing. This was the only symptom the individual had, the CDC said.”