Will EU achieve 15% market share in semiconductors before 2030?
Plus
12
Ṁ4102029
16%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The European Chips Act will reinforce the semiconductor ecosystem in the EU, ensure the resilience of supply chains and reduce external dependencies. It is a key step for the EU’s technological sovereignty. And, it will ensure Europe meets its digital decade target of doubling its global market share in semiconductors to 20%. (source)
20% feels too ambitious, but maybe 15%?
Resolves YES if a credible study reports that EU has increased its semiconductor market share to 15% or more.
Resolves NO if no such study is published before 2030.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@SergeyDavidoff I think it would count as the US seems to count the new TSMC fab in Arizona as theirs too.
Related questions
Related questions
[Metaculus] Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?
61% chance
Will Intels CPU market share drop below 60% by the end of 2024?
35% chance
EV market share in 2030?
Will the USA have 20% or more of advanced logic chip production by 2032?
49% chance
Will NVIDIA maintain a >=75% of the Data center market share for at least 8 quarters by the end of 2026?
64% chance
Will the US be able to prop up its domestic semiconductor industry in a way that rivals China's -- not including Taiwan -- in the next five years?
75% chance
Will a Chinese company make and release a semiconductor equal to or less than 5nm by the end of 2024?
9% chance
Will AMD have a higher market share of CPUs (all CPUs) than Intel in Q1 2030?
47% chance
Will TSMC dominate the semiconductor manufacturing market for the next 10 years?
61% chance
Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?
20% chance