Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?
Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?
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Taken from Scott Alexander's post "Against Ice Age Civilizations" (with slight wording changes so as to fit within the character limit for titles). All of the following predictions are about structures on Earth built by homo sapiens without time travel. He puts this at 20%.
There was no time limit given in the post, but I've set the close date to the start of 2040 (else it could never resolve in the negative).
Will resolve to Scott Alexander's judgement if he provides it; otherwise, I will use my judgement and reports in reliable sources to try to answer it (I will not bet in this market).
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bought Ṁ50 YES at 33% 1y
2 traders bought Ṁ119 YES 1y
this question made it into long now https://longbets.org/933/ (also kinda arb with Major archaeological discovery rivaling Göbekli Tepe by 2043?58%)
showcasing this market because it's uncertain, original, and relevant to our understanding of tech progress
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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