Will a trans person be president of the USA by 2030?
Will a trans person be president of the USA by 2030?
Plus
29
Ṁ36292030
3%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@ShadowyZephyr Doesn't say they have to be elected. 18 entries in the Presidential Line of Succession. Arguably if they all decided to retire in order or died, that's 18 rolls of the base rates dice.
With how old Presidents are getting, 1 reroll even seems likely.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will the US have a gender non-conforming president by 2033?
3% chance
Will a Republican come out as trans in office before 2030?
13% chance
Will the US have a female or gender non-conforming president by 2033?
38% chance
Will there be a US president who identifies as female by end of 2035?
54% chance
Will an openly trans Republican be elected to a U.S. state or federal government position by the end of 2030?
20% chance
Will the United States elect a woman president by 2030?
29% chance
Will any country in the world have a transgender head of state by 2050?
77% chance
Will there be a US president who identifies as queer by 2035?
14% chance
Will the US have a (new) homosexual or bisexual president by 2033?
17% chance
Will it be illegal to be openly transgender in any part of the United States by 2030?
36% chance