Nah

maybe there will be an Ai winter between level 3 and level 4 on the OpenAi scale.

level 4 on the OpenI scale is literally ASI

once AGI is achieved by level2 and perfected by level 3 maybe there would be an Ai winter before ASI is reached

Yeah, AGI is not a thing. Literally everything until the heat death of the universe will occur before AGI is achieved.

@DLeeBrewington lol

How would you define Winter? Wikipedia says: "AI winter is a period of reduced funding and interest in artificial intelligence research". But by how much would funding & interest need to go down to count as a winter? For example if funding were to go down levels between 2015-2020 that would still be much higher than previous winters, but much lower than currently.

@JanW Whatever definition is general consensus at the time.

@komplexkonjugat My estimate really depends on the definition. I think it's likely that investment will drop at some point, but I think it's quite unlikely to go back to levels before 2018. For the same reason, I expect that people in the future will disagree about whether something counts as an AI Winter for the same reason people might.

I feel like it's possible to decide now on a good resolution criteria like "Investment in a year drops to 2018 levels of investment" or "Investment in a year drops by 50% compared to the previous 5 years"

@JanW Then go create a market with that definition. I won't change this market.