Will I live to be 150 years old?

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I'm currently 20 years old. I have no major health issues or family history of health issues. I generally don't participate in dangerous activities.

I love my life and want to stay alive for as long as possible. I could see myself wanting to live for thousands of years if I could. I intend to continue living even if I foresee my utility being net negative for the foreseeable future, but that may change in the future.

Market resolves "n/a" if I die as a result of intentional market manipulation.

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24d

Well when the question is about general public i.e. "Will anybody born before 2000 live to be 150?" and such, there's a high probability; but when it comes to individuals among them, the probability gets much lower...

bought Ṁ10 YES7mo

I intend to continue living even if I foresee my utility being net negative for the foreseeable future, but that may change in the future

Do you currently foresee your utility being positive or negative?

1mo

@TheAllMemeingEye very positive

bought Ṁ5 YES at 26% 1mo

How will you resolve when dead?

predictedYES 1y

@RutgerDeMaeyer My child can resolve the market.

2mo

@justifieduseofFallibilism will you get married and have a child?

1mo

@k1234567890y yes

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What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.

Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.

Learn more.

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