How much will the average American man weigh in 2030?
How much will the average American man weigh in 2030?
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Ṁ3302030
197
expected
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Currently the average adult male in the United States weighs 199.8lbs according to the CDC.
This market resolves to however much the average American male will weigh in 2030, according to the most reliable data available at that time.
If for unforeseen reasons (e.g. rapid adoption of highly effective weightloss supplements, a new culinary breakthrough in fatty deliciousness) the average weight in 2030 is beyond the 185-215 range set at market creation, then the market will resolve to the closest value.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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