🇺🇸 Will the first woman to become President of the United States be a Republican or a Democrat?
🇺🇸 Will the first woman to become President of the United States be a Republican or a Democrat?
Plus
31
Ṁ20082049
1D
1W
1M
ALL
51%
Democrat
48%
Republican
1.2%
neither
The close date is arbitrary; either I or a moderator will extend the close date as needed until a woman becomes president of the United States.
For purposes of this market, "woman" is someone who identifies as a woman at the time of the respective event. If a politician became President of the United States as a man and then identified as transgender after leaving the Presidency, then that would not satisfy the requirement (unless they were to regain the presidency).
I will not bet in this market.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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