Absent a constitutional amendment or blatant violation of said constitution, the only way he can get a third term is to accept some lower position in the line of succession and then everybody above him leaves office. How does that resolve? Does it matter whether the people above him - the ones who actually win the election - are explicitly running just to give him another term? Does it matter whether they follow through?

How does this resolve if he loses the election (as reported on by consensus of media, or something) but stays in power (by refusing to transfer power, or by claiming he won, or something of that nature)?

@bens if he gets the majority of votes in the Electoral College then this market resolves YES. It resolves YES even if the election is maybe rigged. Doesn't resolve YES if he doesn't win the Electoral College.

@jim got it! Might want to put that in the description of the market. Also might want to flesh out some gray areas, like:
-he doesn't win a majority of electoral votes, but nominates alternative slates of electors
-there isn't an electoral college vote because a coup happens before then
-he runs for a third term but the election itself is delayed/results highly questionable/etc
-other hijinxes

@bens perhaps a simpler question would be like "conditional on Trump running for a third term, will he win (be in power in February 2029)" or something like that

@bens just because in the worlds in which Trump runs for a 3rd term, I think the likelihood that the outcome of the election will be in question or highly dubious or contested or whatever is very, very high