Who will win the next parliamentary election in Poland?
Who will win the next parliamentary election in Poland?
Plus
31
Ṁ8042027
55%
KO
29%
PiS
3%
3D / P2050
4%
Konfederacja
0.4%
Lewica
9%
This will result to the party with majority of votes in the next parliamentary election in Poland.
The next planned ones are supposed to happen in late 2027.
Current polls here
Party configurations/coalitions may change. I reserve the right to add more options or decide on splits, if necessary.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Why are two of the options parties, and the other three are party alliances? Shouldn’t they all be parties only since that is how votes are counted?
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
2025 Poland's Presidential Election: Who will advance to the second round?
Who will win the 2025 Polish presidential election?
Candidate from which Party will become the next president of Poland in 2025?
Who will win 2025 Polish presidential election?
Who will be the Prime Minister of Poland on January 1, 2026?
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Poland, after Donald Tusk?
Will there be parliamentary elections in Poland in 2025?
17% chance
Who will be the Prime Minister of Poland on June 1, 2030?
Will a party other than PiS and PO win any national election in Poland by 2040?
66% chance